In Q1 — Q3 2014, the total commercial real estate investment volume reached US$ 3.7 bn. In Q3 2014, the total investment volume was US$ 1.3 bn, which is similar to the previous year’s number (US$1.2 bn), according to Cushman & Wakefield, Russia.
The initial 2014 forecast was unchanged at US$ 5.0 bn by the end of the year. According to Denis Sokolov, Head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield Russia: “We believe it is achievable given the macroeconomic situation and political risks. We expect that Q4 will not be significantly more active than Q3. With a significant revision of the 2015 economic outlook, we reduce our investment volumes forecast for 2015 downward to US$ 5.7 bn”.
In July, the CBR increased the key rate 0.5 pp setting it at 8.0%. Following the CBR and overall market trends, Cushman & Wakefield increased the capitalization rates 0.5 pp for offices, 0.25 pp for prime retail and 0.25 pp for warehouse objects.
As usual, investments are primarily concentrated in Moscow. The total up-to-date investment volume in capital city real estate increased to 92% at US$ 3.4 bn (including US$ 1.2 bn invested in Q3 2014). In Q1 — Q3 2014, the share of offices in the total volume was 63% at US$ 2.3 bn. At the same time, in Q3 2014, comparable volumes were invested in office (US$ 620 mn) and residential / hotel (US$ 613 mn) real estate.
US$ 2.9 bn and US$ 0.8 bn were invested by domestic and foreign companies, respectively.